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M94A2303.TXT
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1994-10-25
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Document 2303
DOCN M94A2303
TI A mathematical model for HIV transmission among IDU.
DT 9412
AU Yang HM; de Carvalho HB; Massad E; Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade
de Sao Paulo, Brazil.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):335 (abstract no. PC0273). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370272
AB We propose a mathematical model for the estimation of human
immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence among intravenous drug users
(IDU) and needles (the injection apparatus), which are the dynamic
variables of the model. The infection transmission mechanisms are
assumed to be via both sexual and needle sharing habits. The model
provides a tool for the estimation of the impact of interventions, like
the increase of the number of needles and/or the removing rate of
needles on one hand and the bleaching of the needles on the other, to
guide public health authorities. The model considers two cases: the
sexual transmission rate of HIV below or above a certain threshold value
(or, the existence or not of the disease). In this first case, the model
provides the threshold values for the IDU density (the number of IDU
divided by the number of needles) and for the bleaching parameter. In
the second case, there is no possibility of eradication by the two
mechanisms of intervention mentioned. Sensitivity analysis shows that
the increasing of the IDU density by a program of needles distribution
is more efficient than bleaching the needles. The intervention on IDU
density or the removing rate of needles has the same effect. The dynamic
of HIV prevalence in both IDU and needles are also studied by
introducing a certain amount of infected needles in a previously
non-infected IDU community. The equilibrium value is reached more
rapidly when the introduction of infected needles increases. When we
increase the IDU density or the bleaching parameter values, the dynamic
variables obey the same rule, that is, there is a time delay to reach
the equilibrium values. However in the second case this time delay is
tenfold greater. The dynamic analysis shows that the intervention on the
bleaching parameter, due to the time delay, seems to be more efficient
to control the disease, but the intervention on the IDU density is even
more efficient as shown by sensitivity analysis.
DE Brazil/EPIDEMIOLOGY Human HIV Infections/EPIDEMIOLOGY/PREVENTION &
CONTROL/*TRANSMISSION *HIV Seroprevalence *Models, Statistical Needle
Sharing/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA Sex Behavior Sterilization/STATISTICS
& NUMER DATA Substance Abuse, Intravenous/COMPLICATIONS/*EPIDEMIOLOGY
MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).